I was recently commissioned to study and make recommendations on strategies for food security in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region. The core issue is stark: NENA faces a severe and persistent water deficit, which population growth will only exacerbate, widening the food demand-supply gap.
The technological solutions exist. We have advanced options for precision irrigation and, critically, large-scale recycled wastewater use.
However, the adoption of these vital, sustainable solutions is currently dependent on a single, volatile factor: the global price of food imports.
Here is the strategic dilemma facing NENA policymakers:
- Current Reality: If the global price of imported food remains lower than the significant capital and operational costs required to deploy large-scale wastewater recycling infrastructure, the region will continue its current strategy—importing food to feed its growing populations. It’s the economically rational choice in the short term.
- The Tipping Point: Only if the cost of international food imports becomes prohibitively expensive (due to trade wars, climate shocks, or global market disruptions) will the economic equation flip. At that point, the adoption of domestic water recycling and other high-tech agricultural innovations will be rapidly and decisively implemented.
Essentially, the market is delaying necessary water resilience. Innovation is waiting in the wings, but it requires an external economic shock—a massive price spike in global food—to be deployed.
This raises a critical strategic question for NENA countries: Should governments implement policies now to accelerate water technology adoption, treating resilience as a national security asset, or continue to gamble on the stability and affordability of the global food market?